Ray, Subhasish, and Anil Varughese. ‘Economic Voting in Multi-Level Contexts: Evidence from Kerala and West Bengal in India’. Electoral Studies 73 (October 2021), Article 102378. Published ahead of print, 14 July 2021.
Abstract: What determines electoral support for national incumbent parties and state-level challengers in sub-national pro-poor contexts?
Based on survey data from Kerala and West Bengal, collected prior to the 2019 national election, we find that voters were more (less) inclined to vote for the sub-national incumbent relative to the national incumbent if their household economic conditions were perceived to have improved (deteriorated) relative to national economic conditions.
Our findings indicate that voters in these settings correctly assume that the sub-national incumbent cannot be held responsible for changes in national economic conditions, but the existence of a strong welfare state at the sub-national level creates expectations that the sub-national government is responsible for personal welfare. Hence, the national election is used to assess the economic performance of both the sub-national and the national incumbent.
Reposted from Kerala Scholars eGroup
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